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The slow cooker of death: 1% of all infected Americans might die

According to a new meta study, the new coronavirus could kill 1.04 percent of all people who become infected. This death rate, estimated by researchers at Stanford University in California, would make COVID-19 ten times more lethal than influenza. And way more people get infected with the SARS Cov-2 virus than with the flu and there are more severe cases.

In the UK, an estimated 48,417 people have died from the disease so far.

Stanford University researchers estimated the mortality rate of the virus using a complex algorithm based on the number of people who tested positive in 139 countries around the world.

They combined this with the assumed accuracy of the tests to create what they described as “a novel statistical approach based on sampling effort”.

They looked at how each country decides who is tested, how many of their tests were positive and how many false negatives were considered.

When the researchers – Richard Grewelle and Giulio De Leo – ran the numbers through their formula, they put the estimated total mortality rate of the virus at 1.04 percent.

The paper was published on the MedRxiv website.

Statistics suggest that the actual number of deaths in the UK is currently around 48,417. Figures from the Office for National Statistics, National Records Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics Agency NISRA suggest that the actual number of people who have died from COVID-19 is 37 per cent higher than the Department of Health has counted.

A sample calculation for a 60% infection rate in the US over time would mean a death toll of about 1.7 million people.  Coronavirus infections could climb to as many as 5.4 million cases in the U.S. over the next two months, and more than 290,000 Americans could die if social distancing is not maintained, a prediction model said. The forecast of the Wharton School model of the University of Pennsylvania assumes that all states without social distancing measures will be completely reopened. By comparison, the model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24, when states reopen but individuals continue their efforts at social distancing. If states only partially reopen by lifting institutionalization but maintain social distancing efforts, the model predicts 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths.

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